Pakistan's journey ever since its creation in August of 1947 has been no different. The roller coaster ride it has witnessed between civil and military rule with highs and lows at different points for different reasons seems to have tapered off with the third consecutive civilian government at the helm of affairs and with an agenda for a "Naya Pakistan" This very terminology has given rise to great expectations by the public and perhaps earned the popular vote for the present government to come into power having struggled for over 22 years.The 82-page document titled "ONE YEAR OF NAYA PAKISTAN" released by the government on the 18th of August conveys details on the aims and objectives as also achievements of some 41 areas under the control of the Federal Government.
The pages take you through each ministry and their divisions elaborating upon their different programmes and performance during the first year. To the common man on the street and more so to the daily wage earners, such details do not convey the thinking the government envisages for progress in the long term. They understand the rise in prices related to their daily use items while the government seems to be concentrating more on what they see as the more pressing issues of national debts, balance-of payments crisis, depleting foreign currency reserves, and the like. If it was not for the help by friendly countries like China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates helping with over seven Billion Dollars, Pakistan would not have been able to meet the country's essential imports much less service the maturing critical debt financing. The government was able to avoid a default which otherwise would have sent inflation spiraling having an adverse effect on the economy and its financial standing internationally. The lengthy negotiation with IMF further helped with a commitment of nearly six-billion-dollar bailout package of which nearly a billion has already been received. The package, which supports the government's efforts to revive the country's ailing economy also helps as an endorsement giving way to other multi-lateral donor organizations like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank the confidence they require.
However, a year into its term in power, the government has much to deliver what was assured during their election campaign. People have shown patience realizing the economic strains faced due to serious balance of payment situation and depleting foreign exchange reserves. The government's response took long to take shape, giving rise to extended uncertainty which had its impact on the stock market operations and at the same time concerns about currency's stability. In both cases, speculation took its toll which further aggravated the situation.
The real panic situation, more so in the business circles, now seems to be easing out. The stock market has improved considerably while the currency is holding ground. Securities and Exchange Commission (SECP) reports that in July more than 1,500 new companies have been registered, an increase of over 40% as compared to last year. Pakistan's ranking in World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index has improved from 147th in 2018 to 136 in 2019. The government's battle against swollen trade deficit is bearing fruits as it shrank by 29 per cent in the first month of this fiscal year, driven largely by a decline in non-essential luxury items. The trade deficit decreased 28.84pc to $2.27 billion in July, from $3.19bn over the corresponding month of last year. The decline in imports is mainly due to the imposition of regulatory duties on luxury items and automobiles. Remittances from overseas workers increased 24 percent to $2.039 billion in the first month of the current fiscal year from $1.645 billion in the previous month. The filing of income tax returns for tax year 2018 has reached the total number of 2,404,371 as compared to 1,486,756 returns filed for the tax year 2017 indicating a growth of 62 percent over the last year. Such optimistic situation has come about from several policy interventions by the government including improved energy supply, import substitution drive, incentives for the export-oriented industries, economic stabilization, and by the effect of currency devaluation as well.
Great expectations though, are still in place as employment situation is far from satisfactory and the same applies to poverty alleviation, corruption, inflation, safe drinking water and housing which was time and again assured before coming into power. Presently the country is facing several challenges as the economy has weakened, inflation and unemployment are on the higher side and the masses are facing uncertainty. This was admitted by no less than the State Bank Governor while addressing the flag hoisting ceremony on the eve of 73rd Independence Day of Pakistan at SBP head office. The government must seriously work on a long-term economic growth plan which should benefit low income and middle class whose hopes and expectations were repeatedly raised during the election campaign. Like Pip, the orphan nicknamed by Charles Dickens in his novel, people are hopeful of a change in their lives from the "Naya Pakistan" promised.
The writer is a member of several Bi-Lateral Business Forums in Pakistan and the Managing Director of Technology Links.